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China has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.